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L’Iran ne craquera pas

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Commençons par le marteler. L’Iran ne craquera pas. L’Iran ne craquera pas. L’Iran ne craquera pas. Mais le répéter mille fois ne suffira sans doute pas à percer l’immense brouillard de la désinformation dans lequel s’enveloppe l’élite US, qui tente de vendre à la « communauté internationale » une colossale campagne de propagande.

Voir par exemple cet insipide éditorial, où nous apprenons que « la communauté internationale est désormais attentive aux fissures dans l’arrogance iranienne : l’alourdissement des sanctions contraindra-t-il Téhéran à accepter de véritables concessions et à sortir de l’impasse ?

Un seul mot suffira: non.

Pour la gouverne des débutants, la «  communauté internationale » ne se réduit pas au conglomérat OTAN-CCG* plus Israël. Non seulement le groupe de puissances émergentes des BRICS mais aussi les 110 membres du Mouvement des non-alignés - autrement dit la majorité de la « communauté internationale » de fait - sont épouvantés devant le traitement de paria infligé à l’Iran dans ses négociations avec le groupe des 5+ 1- les 5 membres permanents du Conseil de sécurité de l’ONU plus l’Allemagne.

L’article fait ensuite remarquer que l’Iran ne « saisit pas sa chance » de se coucher sans résister à la diplomatie employée par Washington dans les négociations sur le nucléaire. « Au contraire, ils exigent qu’on reconnaisse son droit d’enrichir l’uranium.» Bien sûr qu’il en a le droit, puisqu’il a signé le traité de non-prolifération nucléaire.

Ce qui fait l’intérêt de cet éditorial, c’est qu’il n’est pas sorti de la plume d’un « néocon » enragé. Son auteur est un « professeur à la Kennedy School de l’université de Harvard spécialiste des affaires internationales, ex-vice-conseiller pour la sécurité nationale et chercheur au Council on Foreign Relations». Si c’est l’aune à laquelle mesurer la hauteur du débat intellectuel prédominant dans le tourniquet où se retrouvent la science, la fabrication de l’opinion et la politique, les élites US ne peuvent envisager l’avenir que comme un fléau pire que la Peste noire.

Regardez où vous mettez les pieds

Maintenant passons au monde réel et regardons les faits.

Dans les négociations en cours sur le nucléaire, la Russie parle de « démarcheprogressive ». Cela signifie que l’Iran intensifiera peu à peu sa collaboration avec l’AIEA, et que les sanctions décroîtront dans la même mesure.

Jetez un coup d’oeil - long et fouillé- sur ce document, que les représentants iraniens à l’ONU ont laissé filtrer la semaine dernière.Vous y trouverez en substance la position iranienne. L’Iran y réclame une « collaboration sur le long terme » qui doit finir par abattre le mur de défiance qui le sépare des USA depuis 1979.

Tous les observateurs bien informés et tous les participants savent que ce drame géopolitique sans fin dépasse largement le dossier du nucléaire iranien. Mais il faudra bien trouver un début de solution- et ce début, c’est la reconnaissance du droit de l’Iran à enrichir l’uranium, puis l’allègement progressif des sanctions.

C’est justement la  « démarche progressive » que préconise Moscou. L’étape suivante (ou ultime) consisterait en « un traité sur les engagements collectifs dans les domaines économique, politique, de sécurité et de collaboration internationales».

Ce qui veut dire reconnaître la souveraineté et les droits de l’Iran au lieu de le diaboliser et de le sanctionner parce que le conglomérat OTAN-CCG plus Israël abhorre et/ou redoute une République islamique à dominante chiite.

Pas besoin de bosser à la Kennedy School of Government pour voir que Washington y opposera un refus très net. Washington, Londres, Paris et Berlin - mais pas Moscou et Pékin - empêcheront la poursuite des négociations tant que l’Iran ne renoncera pas à enrichir l’uranium.

Il est d’une importance capitale de repenser au 17 mai 2010, où le Brésil, la Turquie et l’Iran, après 18 heures d’un marathon diplomatique, étaient parvenus à Téhéran à un accord prévoyant que l’Iran enverrait son uranium faiblement enrichi en Turquie où se poursuivrait son enrichissement pour le transformer en combustible nucléaire destiné à un réacteur expérimental.

Quelques pays arabes eux-mêmes - incluant des membres du CCG - y étaient favorables, ainsi que Paris. Moscou et Pékin se montraient méfiants, estimant que l’Iran renonçait par là aux droits que lui garantissait le TNP. Mais comme d’habitude, la Secrétaire d’État aux affaires étrangères, Hillary Clinton, a torpillé le deal dès le lendemain - essentiellement parce que l’Iran aurait alors pu continuer à enrichir l’uranium.

 

Des acteurs hors jeu

Wahington a « attendri » l’Irak pendant une décennie au moyen de sanctions extrêmement dures avant de pouvoir lancer sa campagne Shock and Awe et détruire une nation affaiblie et divisée. Sans même parlerdes chimères brumeuses qui enveloppent aussi bien les « néocons » que les pseudo-libéraux, cette « stratégie » ne fonctionnera pas en Iran.

Même si l’Iran vend moins de pétrole, et même s’il est de facto exclu du système financier international, Téhéran trouvera le moyen de contourner les nouvelles sanctions et embargos pétroliers européens et de faire monter les prix du brut. La Chine restera un client régulier - payant moins, en yuan, le pétrole iranien, mais en achetant davantage. L’eurozone tiendra bon - pour le moment  en tout cas, donc sa demande de pétrole ne va pas chuter.

La majorité du Majlis (Parlement) iranien pourrait bientôt approuver la loi permettant de contrôler les tankers qui franchissent le détroit d’Ormuz pour se rendre dans des pays qui appliquent l’embargo. Même si cela se limite à des contrôles de police routiniers, il en résultera une hausse des prix du pétrole. Le dindon de la farce sera, une fois de plus, l’UE, ce qui confirmera les immenses capacités de Bruxelles à agir contre l’intérêt de ses États-membres.

L’administration Obama doit maintenant se décider: ou bien c’est l’école diplomatique du « roll over and die» (faire le gros dos) qui l’emporte, ou on passe à de véritables négociations. Traiter l’Iran en paria ne mènera qu’à commettre la même erreur que l’administration Bush dont le Shock and Ave a abouti à un alignement de Bagdad sur Téhéran (alors que les USA ne sont pas même devenus les « nouvel OPEC » dont rêvait l’esprit vif du va-t-en guerre Paul Wolfowitz.)

Mais tout cela ne sera rien comparé aux échanges commerciaux de matières premières énergétiques effectués par l’Iran, la Russie et de la Chine en d’autres devises, ce qu’ils font déjà: ’est le commencement de la fin du pétrodollar comme colonne vertébrale de la politique énergétique mondiale et donc de l’hégémonie usaméricaine. Il est temps pour la bande de casseurs d’Iran de retourner à l’école.

* CCG : Conseil de coopération des États arabes du Golfe, fondé en 1981 à Abou Dhabi par le Koweït, le Bahreïn, l’Arabie saoudite, le Qatar, les Émirats Arabes Unis et le sultanat d’Oman, pour tenter de contrer la révolution islamique iranienne de 1979.

Pepe Escobar

Article original: Iran won't crack , le 7 juillet 2012

Traducido por  Michèle Mialane

Editado por  Fausto Giudice فاوستو جيوديشي

Source: Tlaxcala, le 14 juillet 2012

Traducciones disponibles: Español  Português  Italiano  Deutsch 

 

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